Ain't No Rocket Scientist

Talladega Nights

This blog and the Space Cynics have started a discussion on locating viable revenue streams to support humans in space. Whether we will be successful remains an unanswered question, both for the trivial purposes of our discussions here on the Intarweb (tm) (as invented by algore) and for larger purposes related to the future of the human race.

Previously in comments at Space Cynics I have opined more or less as follows (edited for brevity):

If it is true that humanity cannot really become spacefaring so long as taxpayer revenue is required to pay for spaceflight, then NewSpace needs to locate non-taxpayer sources of revenue to support humans in space. I see four categories for that (and would be thrilled if anyone can offer a category I have overlooked):

(1) Space Tourism

The Space Cynics just love this category, don't they? ;-)

(2) On orbit materials processing and Pharma research

(Paul Dietz has demolished the perfect ball bearing myth and the Cynics confirm that Big Pharma has essentially zippo interest for spending money on zero-gee drug or medical research. However, the category is included for purposes of completeness.)

(3) Space resources and energy

He3 & PGM & space solar power. Opinions vary. ;-)

(4) Media, marketing, sponsorships, brand enhancement

Anyone attempting (1) or (2) or (3) certainly can combine those efforts with product placement deals such as "Intel Inside" spots for computers doing on orbit bio-tech reserch or a requirement that space tourists wear Nike logo flightsuits or appear in videos drinking Gatorade while on orbit. Or this category can be pursued on its own.

This fourth category: (4) Media, marketing, sponsorships, brand enhancement brings us face-to-face with a new classic in American cinema - - Will Ferrell's latest movie Talladega Nights.

Elon Musk: For Love, not Money

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The best way to make a small fortune in the space business is to start with a large one.

This is a quote often attributed to Elon Musk. Given that Musk has indeed accumulated a large personal fortune from various entrepreneurial activities before

undertaking his SpaceX business venture, we need to take that quote seriously. It also suggests Musk has not (fully?) imbibed the Kool Aid so often ridiculed at the Space Cynics blog. It is also said that Musk openly acknowledges that he cannot  currently present a plausible business case to justify accepting money from investors.

SpaceX is said to be cash flow positive for the current year however that obviously involves deposits taken for future flights. While positive cash flow certainly is a good thing, it is also not the same as  being profitable. In addition, SpaceX has yet to make any financial return on the substantial commitment of time and money and personal energy contributed by Elon Musk himself.

Surely Musk could figure out how to make his large fortune even larger rather than smaller if he so desired. So, what motivates Elon Musk in his quest to lower the costs of reaching LEO?

Perhaps Robert Zubrin (of all people) has the answer to this question.

Spaceport America (by Bill White)

It really is all about the marketing. From the ABQ Trib article:

The same day the shuttle landed safely at Cape Canaveral, Fla., a team of New Mexican economic developers was in Hampshire, England, announcing the freshly monikered Spaceport America project in New Mexico.

Gene Grant, the ABQ Trib columnist continues:

Someone in Santa Fe has his or her space helmet strapped on with that new name. Leaving the original Southwest Regional Spaceport name behind is a stroke of small genius. Perfect. New Mexico figured something out on that, because names being what they are, this one was destined to be stuck on the launchpad.

That word "regional" was the problem, because it denotes there are other such spaceports, and the simple truth is, in order for this spaceport to get planted correctly, there has to be an overwhelming sense of ownership on it.

This is no time to share.

Starchaser's Rocket City (by Bill White)

In the news today:

July 6, 2006 - Starchaser Industries announces plans for flagship development in southern New Mexico

Las Cruces, NM - Starchaser Industries Inc., the first private space company to establish a New Mexico presence in response to the development of the Southwest Regional Spaceport, is pleased to announce plans to develop a 120-acre site approximately seventeen miles west of the City of Las Cruces in southern New Mexico.

The ten-year $100 million project, which will be privately financed, is expected to create up to 300 permanent positions, from service industry to high tech, high salary aerospace jobs with an emphasis on training local people. Phased development of the site will include rocket manufacturing and astronaut training facilities, retail outlets, office accommodations, restaurants and exhibition areas as well as a space-themed hotel with conference facilities. The Rocket City complex will span more than a mile of interstate frontage associated with the north side of exit 116 on Interstate 10.

Starchaser's Rocket City, located roughly 50 miles due south and well within striking distance of the Southwest Regional Spaceport, will be a high-tech theme park with an emphasis on science education and a 22nd century space age experience. Exhibitions and hands-on experiences will be themed toward personal and contemporary spaceflight while celebrating New Mexico's rich and varied space heritage.

Rocket City will provide unprecedented "behind the scene tours" of a working rocket assembly and manufacturing plant. Visitors will be able to purchase advance tickets for rides into space aboard Starchaser's Thunderstar rocketship, while having the opportunity to become familiar with the technology used to make spaceflight possible.

As a major tourist destination, Rocket City will attract throngs of visitors to the area and will compliment other New Mexico space initiatives. The development will offer many opportunities to create local, regional and national partnerships and will provide a focus for those wishing to invest in space tourism without necessarily having to put their money into rocket development.

This is exactly what New Mexico is hoping for. Not rides for passengers, but throngs of visitors.

Agreement! At least perhaps . . . (by Bill White)

Space Cynics reponds to my previous response with a new post: Ports and Theme Parks are incompatible.

On one hand, I agree that theme parks are very different than an actual functioning "port" such as O'Hare Airport or the NY Port Authority. But on the other hand, I am tempted to offer NY's South Street Seaport as an example of a seaport that is actually a living museum, shopping mall & tourist trap. I do assert that the "spaceports" being planned by the State of New Mexico and the city-state of Singapore have always been understood by the proponents as being much more like a theme park than an actual functioning "port" such as O'Hare Airport or the NY Port Authority.

I remain surprised that the Space Cynics (a supposed cynical operation) ever doubted this fact.

I also remain skeptical that suborbital space tourism can ever transition into a genuine transportation system except as a permanent subset of the entertainment industry. If suborbital space tourism is all about entertainment, we need to embrace that reality and then run with it. Dr. Peter Diamandis and Sir Richard Branson appear to be doing exactly that.

Of Seven Irons and Spaceports (by Bill White)

Tin Cup is a 1996 movie about a washed up driving range golf pro (Kevin Costner) who attempts to qualify for the US Open. Costner just needs to play nine more holes to qualify when he gets into an argument with his caddy (Cheech Marin) and ends up snapping all of his clubs in half - - except for a seven iron. Being a Hollywood movie, Costner proceeds to shoot par on the back nine using nothing but his seven iron. Later, a somewhat drunk Costner encounters a long time rival (Don Johnson) in a bar and crows about shooting par on the back nine using only a seven iron.

Costner challenges Johnson as to whether "he has ever done that.""No," Johnson admits "and actually it had never occurred to me to even try."

About a week ago we rented Tin Cup at Blockbuster and while watching the movie the foregoing scene reminded me of an extended discussion over at Space Cynics as to whether ticket revenue from suborbital passengers will be sufficient to offset the capital costs of building $225 million spaceports. The Cynic author is of course skeptical.

I honestly do not know whether anyone can fund a suborbital spaceport solely from ticket revenue collected from paying passengers. My gut says "No!" but I could well be wrong. Whatever. But the larger issue the Space Cynics essay raises is similar to the challenge of playing golf using only a seven iron. Maybe you can win with just a seven iron and maybe not, but the question still stands, why even try?

Just as Nevada Bob's offers a wide variety of clubs, spaceports such as the ones to be built in New Mexico, Singapore and Dubai should be able to harness a large number of diverse revenue sources in addition to revenue from paying passengers. To be fair, Space Cynics does mention some of these alternate revenue sources yet only in passing and instead proposes suborbital point-to-point as the one true killer application.

Whatever. Playing golf with only a five iron is hardly superior to playing golf only with a seven iron.

First tracks for another new space blog (by Bill White)

After several years of stealing bandwidth and hi-jacking threads from the comments section of various blogs such as Rand Simberg's Transterrestrial Musings and Jeff Foust's Space Politics I have decided that the price of electrons has now fallen to a sufficiently low level to justify my launching my own blog.

As the title says, I Ain't No Rocket Scientist, but Google is indeed the greatest invention since sliced bread and I have been reading everything I can possibly find about space exploration and space advocacy for the past several years. I now believe my opinions are sufficiently well formed to warrant this next step in my continuing quest to play rocket scientist on the intarweb (TM) even if I haven't stayed at a Holiday Inn Express since, well, since perhaps ever.